I was WRONG! July 2026 update...

There I said it. I was wrong. Very, very, wrong.

Last month I predicted that real estate sales in the Invermere Area (Columbia Valley including Edgewater, Radium, Windermere, Fairmont, Canal Flats, and Panorama) for the month of June would pace around last June (which was 53 sales). 

What really happened?

There were only 37 sales, down over 30% from last year, and still down from the 5-year average of 45 sales.

And of those sales, eight of them were fractional (part ownership) condo units, with seven of these eight sales being under $100k in price. Another seven of the sales were very close to or well over $1 million and were lake access and recreationally focused, including a building lot in Coldstream Landing in Windermere selling over asking for $975,000, and two smaller lakefront cabins beside each other, one selling for $2,000,000 and the other for $2,221,000.

The softest and quietest category seems to be mid-range priced single family homes and higher priced townhouses, especially in Fairmont and Radium, but even properties in Invermere that in the past would have been hot- have been slower. 

• June 2026: 37 sales vs. 53 in June 2025, down 30.19%
• Year to date: 231 sales vs. 278, down 16.91%
• Total dollar volume of June sales: $21.15 million, versus $26.65 million last June

April and May kept pace with sales volumes last year. There was some activity and the momentum throughout May, which made me think/hope that things were improving. But the reality now is that every month has been down in sales volume, expect for April and May. June was really slow, and I am afraid it was not a one-month blip.

For awhile now we have been blaming the weather. Sometimes we blame Trump or uncertainty around interest rates. These could all play a role.

I mentioned in last month’s update, how strong the recreational market is for anything with lake access.

To some degree this has always been reality, but I think right now it is even more pronounced:

There is a distinct difference between the recreational market and the full-time buyer market.

The recreational market is mostly focused lake access properties, but this could also include fractional units at Bighorn Meadows, RV lots at Valley’s Edge (and other RV parks), and condos at Lake Windermere Pointe or Panorama. There always exceptions, but often these buyers are paying cash. They have net worth, they have stable occupations.

And in the case of access to Lake Windermere, there is scarcity, and there is urgency- something lakefront under $2 million- there will be strong demand.

For full time buyers, whether that is younger folks currently renting and trying to buy their first house, existing local families trying to upgrade, or families trying to move here, or young retirees making this their new home- there seems to be a few challenges right now.

1.      Everything is expensive. For regular people trying to buy a full-time home, the prices are up a lot compared to 2020. And interest rates are a lot higher as well. And often, the homes that are available are dated and people want to do updates, and those updates aren’t cheap

2.      The present and the future is uncertain. People are not sure if prices will go down, and whether interest rates will go up. People are not sure what the economy will do and how secure their jobs are. This uncertainty pushes a lot people into being cautious, not buying at their top budget, or deciding not to make a move.

3.      What happens in the rest of Canada has some impact on us. Especially for people moving from other areas of the country, if the real estate market continues to be soft in Vancouver/Fraser Valley and in Ontario, that can impact people’s ability to sell and move (both on how quickly and how much money they can realize).

What is interesting is that there are people inquiring about properties. There are phone calls, emails, and in person showings. There are even offers flying around. But often the offers are very low (and don’t get accepted).There are price reductions, a number of sellers are realizing that prices are not going up and that trying to push the market and ask a higher price is not going to work.

However, sellers are also generally not THAT motivated. Many sellers have no mortgage, they truly don’t have to sell.

Some buyers are trying offers that are 10% or more below the asking price, sometimes the reduced asking price- and very few sellers are going to sell for $40,000 or $50,000 below asking price, especially on a $550,000 property. The disconnect between buyer’s desire for a deal, and seller’s willingness to sell at a discount- well it’s real- especially for more dated homes in Radium and Fairmont.

Who wins this “tug of war” will be interesting to watch. 

But a few factors to consider:         

For June, we technically saw the days on market for sales improve compared to last year, with June being 80 days and last June being 109 days, but I think this was skewed by several quick sales for sought after higher priced recreational properties. Similar story for average prices, hard to look at these stats on only a monthly basis for a such a small market.

Having just been wrong about June, I will be more careful with predictions. Last year we saw 53 sales in July and 55 in August, and matching those numbers, although possible, may not happen. 

A few things I am watching:

• The psychological and emotional mood, it seemed kind of restrained in June, does warm weather and sunshine (hopefully) in July change the mood?
• Do listings dry up (it kind of feels that way, not a lot of new properties hitting the market right now)?
• Do a number of older listings sell? (hint: I think they will, some already have conditional sales on them)

One thing that can dramatically turn around the feeling of the market is to see almost no new selection, and having sold signs pop up on those houses that have been on the market for some time. There is certainly a ‘hard mentality’ and emotional component to real estate, a bit like an auction or a line up a restaurant. If other people want something- then it makes more people want it. If no one wants something, other people second guess them selves and hold back.

Being brave enough to be a bit ahead of the herd- can be a smart strategy!

Although June was disappointing, I don’t think it is all doom and gloom. And if you are looking to buy a property- don’t assume that prices will drop dramatically or that place you like will stay on the market forever. And if you are looking to sell, don’t shoot to the moon with pricing, be realistic and set a fair price that gets attention initially- you only get to be a new listing once!